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Interface for counterfactual prediction #238

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damonbayer opened this issue Jul 2, 2024 · 2 comments
Open

Interface for counterfactual prediction #238

damonbayer opened this issue Jul 2, 2024 · 2 comments
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pyrenew related to pyrenew internals

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@damonbayer
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May be out of scope for this project (or just for now), but @SamuelBrand1 points us to epidemia's interface for counterfactuals, which I think is cool. This is somewhat straightforward to implement, as we can build off of the built-in numpyro predictive functionality, but we would need to think about the interface.

I like the epidemia interface for prediction/counterfactual: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/epidemia/reference/posterior_predict.epimodel.html .
The tl; dr explanation is they fit an object (which contains posterior draws for the params) and then passing newdata can create forecasts (by being longer) and/or counterfactuals (by having different covariates like an earlier lockdown). Its demoed here, https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/epidemia/articles/europe-covid.html .

Originally posted by @SamuelBrand1 in #169 (comment)

@damonbayer damonbayer added the pyrenew related to pyrenew internals label Jul 12, 2024
@dylanhmorris
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I think we basically get this for free via Predictive, no?

@damonbayer
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Yes, but I was considering whether we want to create a nicer interface for it. Similar to having created our own prior and posterior predictive functions.

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Labels
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