What systems are "working" as of Q2 2019? #26
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Issue Status: 1. Open 2. Started 3. Submitted 4. Done This issue now has a funding of 1.5 ETH (189.32 USD @ $126.21/ETH) attached to it.
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@owocki I'm already working on 3 bounties so gitcoin isn't allowing me to "submit a plan", but I'd like to contribute to this. Here is my answer: The ICO model can be said to be the Pets.com of blockchain business models. Although many have succeeded and persist today, it was cluttered with pump-and-dump schemes and unspectacular projects. There are three models that I am watching that seem very promising for the upcoming years. The first one is Decentralized Altruistic Communities (DAC) which Giveth is spearheading. The combination of using smart contracts for governance and management of funds on the blockchain allows for transparent and decentralized fundraising which is something that non-profits can benefit from. I can cite Red Cross as an example of a charity/non-profit that could benefit from transparency since many are becoming skeptical of what Red Cross does exactly with the funds they raise. The second one is maybe too obvious to discuss here. But it is Gitcoin (lol). Having a bounties network built on top of the collaboration layer (GitHub) as an incentivization layer (GitCoin) is a revolutionary idea IMO. But, indeed, I'm preaching to the choir here. In any case, I hope this is the future of career-building at least for software developers and other creatives. The third one is social media on the blockchain. Steemit (on the steem blockchain) has seen a lot of success here. The monetization of Steemit is game-changing concept here. Instead of selling ad-space to advertisers, monetization is put into the hands of content consumers (as curators) where 'upvotes' are actually more like 'tips.' This way content creators are rewarded more directly by the consumers of their content vs. the traditional ad-based monetization. Brave and the Basic Attention Token (BAT) is another project in this similar regard, but they are yet to implement the feature to get paid to watch ads. Steemit already has a large audience, and Brave seems promising in the next couple of years if it is adopted by the masses. |
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@owocki
UsageIn the cyberpunk world of 2021 Tokens could be seen as convenient way of paying for services and goods, both in virtual world (duh) and physical world thanks to Internet of Things. Creating a bank account for a smart-fridge so that it can order its own groceries or a car so that it can automatically pay its parking fees is going to cause a few eye-rolls, while creating a crypto-wallet for a Smart-thing and filling it with tokens is so easy one could conceivably do it today if one was so inclined. I would expect market to be super top-heavy. In other words most of todays tokens dead or dying, market dominated by few key players with large ecosystems, like Ethereum with its Ether for example. Tokens tied to a single service/company seem to me as intrinsically useless (What good is decentralized "money" if I could exchange it for a useful service at a single provider? i would rather just pay in $/ETH than own/buy a separate token for each entity I do business with) - unless that service is a platform that could be easily replicated (Like Ethereum with its forks, for a given value of easy). StableThat is a simple observation but if one is supposed to use Token as a store of value, it would be pretty convenient to be able to actually be able to estimate that value without having it fluctuate madly from day to day due to sentiments of investors, phases of the moon and pump-and-dump cycles. Being able to leverage the fact that 1$ = 1DAI is far more... secure from business standpoint than crypto-enthusiast mantra that 1BTC = 1BTC. AssetsI feel although of course they are reliant on Oracles so we can't always trust that what is written on the blockchain reflect physical reality - the ability to trace every transaction (on most blockchains!) makes tokens tied to unique real-world assets an interesting possibility. Being able to look at blockchain transaction history to see who currently owns land for sale in your general area, and even exchange ownership of that land using smart contract (maybe even government verified smart contract) instead of a notary needed to conduct the transaction sounds like one possible use case of such system. All in all virtual CryptoKitties are a thing, so I think physical goods, especially those where Provenance is important like Art or... food are also a good fit to be tokenized. This also relates to the point that @krisc is making - that being able to track token transactions is a great feature for citizens willing to investigate spending/income of NGOs, Political parties and other entities that should care about transparency - though those would probably stick to established cryptocurrencies like BTC, rather than accept donations in variety of tokens. As for today, the hardest question when evaluating most today "crypto" business models is:
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This is an excellent point. This can even be generalized to "Does this product even have to be on a blockchain at all?" And if it is on the blockchain, say Ethereum, and considering it's own specialized token, one can ask "Can we simply use Ether?" |
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Just read both posts end to end. Avoiding commenting on specifics for now, as I'd like to not weigh in until more submissions roll in :) |
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Issue Status: 1. Open 2. Started 3. Submitted 4. Done Work has been started. These users each claimed they can complete the work by 11 months from now. 1) writeprovidence has started work. will be making my contribution to this bounty as stated above Learn more on the Gitcoin Issue Details page. 2) cryptomental has started work. I will submit my thoughts as soon as today. Learn more on the Gitcoin Issue Details page. 3) charlie4biz has started work. Will be writing based on the projects I have seen and the ones I am engaged in. Learn more on the Gitcoin Issue Details page. 4) grigio has started work. I will post my ideas on Steem. I let you know when it's ready Learn more on the Gitcoin Issue Details page. 5) kwikiel has started work. I've already started measuring different adoption metrics for multiple projects. This will be mix of data driven research + some qualitative insights Learn more on the Gitcoin Issue Details page. |
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Hi! Let me share my thoughts, too. If I am correct the last ICO peak was reached around mid-2017, a few months before bitcoin hit all time high. For the next peak it will take a few years from now. To answer the question which ICOs will work I divided them into two categories and gave two examples in the each category. I. ICOs backed by corporations and large businesses with a proven track record. Here the rule of thumb to look for solid ones is to 'follow the money' and verify the company background. There are a few reasons for those ICOs to succeed. Corporations have:
In this category I would look for ICOs that solve problems for corporations.
Some safe bets would be also ICOs backed by automotive consortia / largest pharmacy corporations. II. The second category are community-driven open source projects. For those ICOs to succeed, not only the idea is important but also a community support and a feedback loop between development team and people. Also a so-called 'hype' is the key factor to success. Unfortunately sometimes a team that has a great product/and or consists of geniuses with PHDs cannot reach the broader audience. The two example categories would be:
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Issue Status: 1. Open 2. Started 3. Submitted 4. Done Work for 1.5 ETH (212.4 USD @ $141.6/ETH) has been submitted by: @owocki please take a look at the submitted work:
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@owocki seems it's best to drop the post here instead of medium. Here goes. The future life expectancy of some technology or an idea is proportional to their current age so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy — Lindy Effect. According to a recent study carried out by financial research firm Autonomous Research, Crypto-Startups have raised $20billion since the start of 2017 while more than 50 percent of ICOs have failed to raise funds subsequently have closed. 56% of the Crypto funded Startups closed shop within the first four months of their ICO. Most of the dead crypto-projects barely survived a year due to funding-drought because they either failed to STABLE their crypto-fund cause of being accused of closing shop by investors or they went on Lambo-spending spree while some failed to follow some Startup rules; Proof of concept, knowing the market and cash-flow which VCs look out for. Funds that were raised were based on just ideas written on whitepapers with fanciful websites and other eye-popping marketing sensations. Aside DAO projects like Dash, DigixDAO, MakerDAO, and other dividend-paying tokens that are still growing strong, lots of other crypto projects already closed shop after raising millions of dollars in 2016/17, fueled by FOMOers greed and failure to DYOR which is absent in the VC/PE investment world. Seasoned Investors/VCs do Startup valuation and would choose to have a say in the affairs of the organization especially finance. Crypto-Business tokens were created without sound utility, proper market evaluation, government regulations and sold majorly to speculative traders/Whales rather than users that would drive adoption. Even security tokens still need a strong business model that relies on active user adoption in order to generate dividend for holders of such token. Crypto-Startups like Exchanges are now capitalizing on their large active users to create Security tokens to raise more capital for growth; SatoWallet Shares, Binance BNB, KuCoin Shares, thereby giving a sense of ownership to the community of users and rewarding them. Based on my research, some of the surviving crypto projects have these in common; Security Token: A security token that guarantees dividend at the end is highly valuable to holders especially when it is a Mix of Utility hence the unwillingness to sell such token thereby controlling the market circulating supply which increases the value of the token and gives the team opportunity to raise more funds by liquidating team-held tokens when needed. Take a look at ICONOMI and SingularDTV. Asset-Backed DAO-like Structure or Community-vested: Projects that are community driven, funded and controlled seems to be waxing stronger. This is because collective intelligence is used in directing the affairs of the project which makes it valuable to the holders of such token especially when it is backed by an asset. MakerDAO and DigixDAO come to mind. Airdropped-Approach: This approach of token distribution seems to be gathering popularity amongst startups that have valuable and venturable product ideas. Aside from the fact that these projects use it to create free viral marketing for their project, it helps to distribute the token to a wider audience of potential users who would have missed out in having the token if an ICO approach was used. For a valuable project, holders of such token are not in a hurry to trade their tokens when it is listed on an exchange because they didn’t pay for it and this helps against dumping of the token. Since the market determines the value of the token, teams can easily raise their required operational cost from the market by liquidating their team-held tokens. Conclusion |
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thanks :) waiting a few more days before i decide who to payout |
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From our internal slack, about DeFi: "it’s largely adoption via speculation among existing crypto users (although Maker and a few others are pretty critical pieces of infrastructure)." |
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What do you think about SALT lending platform? It has good use-case and the last time I checked, a growing number of users applying for Loan but seems not to be growing in terms of demand for their utility token which serves as the payback mechanism. Just got a report from another lending platform that users are refusing to pay back after collecting Fiat. They prefer to leave their Crypto with the platforms. Seems the bear season is not a good time to give out loan or earthlings are just bad at paying back. |
The idea itself is great, but the second part of your last sentence summarizes the main problem for those platforms. Most people would try the bank first instead, and a large number of the SALT-like platform users would be the ones who were likely refused a loan at the bank and/or scammers trying to get a loan providing fake/stolen personal data. Aside from that I was thinking for a while got three other ideas: points systems used in loyalty programs on a global e-commerce sites, e.g. gearbest offering discounts for the number of 'points' collected. Those could be replaced with a blockchain-based token. Such token could be freely traded with other buyers. Another case would be kind of a reward system for e-commerce. One could opt for using an adblock or getting a small number of token X for watching ads, or another way, putting a small $ worth of token to hide ads, e.g. take $0.0000002 from a user that does not want to see an ad. The last, third another next big thing could be a common token integrated to all those porn sites letting people buy access to content anonymously without using a credit card. That does not need to be necessarily a new token, but an already existing one . Even Ethereum with Raiden payment channels for micro-real time payments would be an excellent use case. |
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@cryptomental good point. Earthlings can't be trusted. On those ideas you mentioned, Brave browser already have such program for ad viewing while pornhub now accepts Verge and Tron coins but it's didn't add any significant increase to their sub growth as less than 1% uses cryptocurrency for payment on their platform. https://www.google.com/amp/s/bitcoinexchangeguide.com/shocking-pornhub-report-reveals-crypto-subscriptions-account-for-less-than-1-of-its-users/amp/ Generally, it's difficult to control secondary market trading for any valuable token as speculators tend to control the market price than the actual users. So this can affect teams that rely on their token share for development. |
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Thank you @charlie4biz for the link. I still believe that their crypto payments solution will succeed once they advertise it properly. I thought more about the near-term ICO trends in general after reading your view, especially "56% of the Crypto funded Startups closed shop within the first four months of their ICO" is an important finding. This means that the investors will be much more careful now. A successful ICO will have now a credible team, likely a token will be backed by real asset, profits, company revenue or at least good statistics on a growing user base. |
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I totally disagree @cryptomental If you have revenues / real assets / company revenue / good userbase then you have boring old equity / company which may seek financing from angel investors / VC but there is no point of doing ICO just to have pointless token. https://medium.com/@nathan.writes/the-fundamental-assumption-of-cryptosystems-723d32dc461a This is the fundamental assumption of tokenized cryptosystems: that as the value of the network increases, it reflects ascending equilibria for the price of its token. Many projects are saying that they focus on building and not on token price and this is wrong as for profit companies exist to benefit shareholders. In real world management is accountable to the board / shareholders and not vague "community" |
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@kwikiel thanks, finally this thread turned into a real debate! Let's learn from each other. I can give one example I estimate that "may work" of the reasons I mentioned above, Disclaimer: The example I write about may be a total scam, I do not advise anyone to buy any single token but I might consider to do so later. I currently do not own any of the token, but may in the future. This token is not even listed on any exchange and the current worth of all tokens on Etherscan is still $0 as the tokens are not exchangeable yet. After the thread is closed I will also delete the link not to make any reference and free advertising to this project. So my example provides the following:
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Sorry to burst your bubble but I doubt that company having $200M in assets would ICO now. This token is not even listed on any exchange -- red flag solve a real-world problem with blockchain - well, you linked obvious scam: The real problem is that token isn't equity and project may be successful while tokens value can go to zero. So what's the benefit for the investors? |
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This thread is getting interesting
@kwikiel the above point depends on the aim of such startup as not all startups starts with the aim of profiting their token holders which brings us to the question "Do businesses/Startup really need tokenisation to raise fund?". The way I see it, Blockchain startups want to eat their cake and have it, they want to raise funds without being shouldered with the responsibility of accountability which is statutory in the VC world for ideas that are not yet valuable in the market. Security and Utility tokens still remain a winner, any time any day for me. Also if what you meant by value of a network increasing is by usage, then it should automatically reflect on its token due to market forces.
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Hi @owocki how long will this be open? Need to do other gigs but can't cos of maximum number of gigs allowed. |
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paying out soon! please let me know who you think should win the bounty via either adding an emoji to their post or via DMing me on the community slack |
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Okay.
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i'm not seeing many votes. i will likely just make a judgement call unless more votes roll in |
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Thanks. No matter how the bounty will be distributed it will be very interesting in the years to come to see which revenue models will survive, also how gitcoin will adapt the new revenue model. Perhaps recent change to 10% fee will be too much because it is a 2 digit fee, but there is really no major competitor right now and it will turn out just fine. Anyway the https://github.com/FEMBusinessModelsRing/web3_revenue_primitives is added to my bookmarks. Howgh. |
im interesting in publicly committing to not becoming a rent seeking monopoly some how. perhaps we will commit to lowering the fee via a subscription/staking mechanism and/or to just lowering the fee as the core team becomes sustainable. |
Yes, sure, whatever works for you. In the end I believe the gitcoin owns a really great 'disruptive' technology stack and ultimately should self-sustain the core team. This is just the matter of adjusting the fees/stakes/whatever mechanism to make bounty providers comfortable with the outcome, which is not easy to achieve. |
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⚡️ A tip worth 0.37500 ETH (62.51 USD @ $166.7/ETH) has been granted to @charlie4biz for this issue from @owocki. ⚡️ Nice work @charlie4biz! Your tip has automatically been deposited in the ETH address we have on file.
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⚡️ A tip worth 0.37500 ETH (62.51 USD @ $166.7/ETH) has been granted to @cryptomental for this issue from @owocki. ⚡️ Nice work @cryptomental! Your tip has automatically been deposited in the ETH address we have on file.
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⚡️ A tip worth 0.37500 ETH (62.51 USD @ $166.7/ETH) has been granted to @kwikielkrisc for this issue from @owocki. ⚡️ Nice work @kwikielkrisc! To redeem your tip, login to Gitcoin at https://gitcoin.co/explorer and select 'Claim Tip' from dropdown menu in the top right, or check your email for a link to the tip redemption page.
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⚡️ A tip worth 0.37500 ETH (62.51 USD @ $166.7/ETH) has been granted to @kwikiel for this issue from @owocki. ⚡️ Nice work @kwikiel! Your tip has automatically been deposited in the ETH address we have on file.
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⚡️ A tip worth 0.37500 ETH (62.51 USD @ $166.7/ETH) has been granted to @SparrowTom for this issue from @owocki. ⚡️ Nice work @SparrowTom! To redeem your tip, login to Gitcoin at https://gitcoin.co/explorer and select 'Claim Tip' from dropdown menu in the top right, or check your email for a link to the tip redemption page.
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just sent out a bunch of payments. eneded up paying everyone equally since i didnt have good signal on what should win. ended up being more than the original bounty amount is anyone interested in writing a medium post summarizing everyones submissions? i'd be willing to publish it to medium.com/gitcoin |
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Issue Status: 1. Open 2. Started 3. Submitted 4. Done This Bounty has been completed. Additional Tips for this Bounty:
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@owocki Oh, I think you missed me? prob because I didn't make a gitcoin submission (I already had max # of bounties currently working)
I was actually thinking about posting mine on Steemit. I could do a compilation post if you like. It would probably bring in some discussion from the steem community. |
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@owocki thanks. If it's still open, I can do a summary of our posts and discussion. |
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pls do!
…On Thu, Apr 4, 2019 at 12:35 AM justcharlz ***@***.***> wrote:
@owocki <https://github.com/owocki> thanks. If it's still open, I can do
a summary of our posts and discussion.
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Gabe Anderson's hypothesis is that we're going to use web2 business models until we figure out what the real web3 native business models are gonna be. |
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@owocki a little aside. Why can't gitcoin make use of a stablecoin like DAI for payout on bounties? Like auto-convert Funder's payment to DAI. A case where contributors start works and before finishing, volatility has taken away half his motivation. I see gitcoin as the web3 of Fiverr in web2. Fiverr still holding strong and they once included Bitcoin as a model of payment but removed it later properly because of volatility. |
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@charlie4biz its on the roadmap! for now you have to payout in DAI though. |
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Business model that would likely thrive beyond 2019 (Summary of Discussion) Most of these companies changed their initial business model to meet with recent times and events after lots of experimentation so also crypto-startups can be adjudged to be in the same phase to find what business model works and last beyond the founders. This led to a discussion on which business model is viable [https://github.com//issues/26] which was unanimously agreed that Decentralized Finance or Blockchain-inspired businesses are majorly fueled by speculation from existing crypto-users. This has led to lots of tokens falling below the ICO price due to dumping by speculators. Startups are now re-focusing to private investors and airdrops. Some of the challenges facing the business model of Crypto-Startup are factors that come with the crypto-space, such as volatility in the fiat value of tokens/cryptocurrencies that serve as a funding vehicle and operations expenditure. The present Business model in the crypto-space was categorized into the following;
Time is the only factor that would determine how long the present surviving models will stay in the space as Crypto-Startups raised $20billion since the start of 2017 while more than 50% of ICOs that failed to raise funds subsequently have closed. 56% of the Crypto funded Startups closed shop within the first four months of their ICO. |
This bounty is a debate bounty (our very first one).
The 2019 token bear market is going to weed our a lot of token models that are not working.
I would like to hear people's predictions for which business models / token models are going to survive and thrive into 2020 and 2021.
Basically, what I'm asking you to do is to go back to 2002 and tell me Amazon is going to succeed and Pets.com is going to fail.
I will stake 1.5 ETH on this bounty, and I will reward 1/3 of it to the top 3 submissions to this bounty based upon the following four metrics
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