Forecasting 5 - Forecasting.Rmd

---
output:
  xaringan::moon_reader:
    css: "my-theme.css"
    lib_dir: libs
    nature:
      highlightStyle: github
      highlightLines: true
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE, message=FALSE}
options(htmltools.dir.version = FALSE, servr.daemon = TRUE)
library(huxtable)
```

class: center, middle, inverse
# Forecasting Time Series
## Forecasting and Forecast Uncertainty

.futnote[Eli Holmes, UW SAFS]

.citation[eeholmes@uw.edu]

---

```{r load_data, echo=FALSE}
load("landings.RData")
landings$log.metric.tons = log(landings$metric.tons)
landings = subset(landings, Year <= 1989)
landings = subset(landings, Species %in% c("Anchovy","Sardine"))
library(ggplot2)
```

## Basic idea

Past values in the time series have information about the current state.

.center[

!(./figs/SpeciesPlot.jpeg)

]


---

## Generating a Forecast


---

## Forecast Uncertainty