BerkleyMadonna_May2020.txt

DT = 0.1

d/dt (S_c) = -lambda_c*S_c
d/dt (I_c) =lambda_c*S_c - gamma*I_c
d/dt (R_c) = gamma*I_c
d/dt (S_a) = -lambda_a*S_a
d/dt (I_a) =lambda_a*S_a - gamma*I_a
d/dt (R_a) = gamma*I_a
d/dt (S_e) = -lambda_e*S_e
d/dt (I_e) =lambda_e*S_e - gamma*I_e
d/dt (R_e) = gamma*I_e

{(alpha_a*N_a+alpha_e*N_e+alpha_c*N_c)}
lambda_c = (gamma*R0/N_c)*  alpha_c/ (alpha_a+alpha_e+alpha_c)* (I_c + I_a + I_e)
lambda_a = (gamma*R0/N_a)*  alpha_a/ (alpha_a+alpha_e+alpha_c)* (I_c + I_a + I_e)
lambda_e = (gamma*R0/N_e)*  alpha_e/ (alpha_a+alpha_e+alpha_c)* (I_c + I_a + I_e)

Death_c=R_c*IFR_c
Death_a=R_a*IFR_a
Death_e=R_e*IFR_e

alpha_c = 0.009
alpha_a = 0.630
alpha_e = (1-alpha_c-alpha_a)
gamma= 1/4.8
R0 =2.5

IFR_c = 0
IFR_a = 0.0015
IFR_e = 0.0100

init S_c = 15758424
init I_c = 0
init R_c = 0
init S_a = 76499818
init I_a = 10
init R_a = 0
init S_e = 35185241
init I_e = 0
init R_e = 0
N_c = S_c + I_c + R_c
N_a = S_a + I_a + R_a
N_e = S_e + I_e + R_e
N=N_c+N_a+N_c