diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Alabama/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Alabama/execute-results/html.json index 96839a4f..dd2ebbb7 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Alabama/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Alabama/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 98% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Alabama.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Alabama. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Alabama.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 98% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Alabama.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Alabama. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Alabama.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Alaska/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Alaska/execute-results/html.json index 159df369..42c165a8 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Alaska/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Alaska/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 94% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Alaska.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Alaska.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 94% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Alaska.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Alaska.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Arizona/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Arizona/execute-results/html.json index 10ed2ed7..2e232255 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Arizona/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Arizona/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 64% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Arizona.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Arizona.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 65% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Arizona.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Arizona.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Arkansas/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Arkansas/execute-results/html.json index a30fd25a..c9c45fea 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Arkansas/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Arkansas/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Arkansas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Arkansas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Arkansas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Arkansas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/California/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/California/execute-results/html.json index 18a19d49..b426edd7 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/California/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/California/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in California.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/California.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in California.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/California.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Colorado/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Colorado/execute-results/html.json index 1781c735..a09e4956 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Colorado/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Colorado/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 95% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Colorado.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Colorado.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 95% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Colorado.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Colorado.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Connecticut/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Connecticut/execute-results/html.json index 501ef871..8291a4b0 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Connecticut/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Connecticut/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Connecticut.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Connecticut.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Connecticut.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Connecticut.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Delaware/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Delaware/execute-results/html.json index cb00f7d3..4390bb86 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Delaware/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Delaware/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Delaware.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Delaware.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Delaware.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Delaware.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/District of Columbia/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/District of Columbia/execute-results/html.json index 6d7e87dd..e6f557d6 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/District of Columbia/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/District of Columbia/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in the District of Columbia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in the District of Columbia. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/District of Columbia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in the District of Columbia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in the District of Columbia. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/District of Columbia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Florida/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Florida/execute-results/html.json index 9bd4379f..bbcdbd35 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Florida/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Florida/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 84% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Florida.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Florida.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 83% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Florida.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Florida.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Georgia/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Georgia/execute-results/html.json index 5682417e..fc146d41 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Georgia/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Georgia/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 66% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Georgia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Georgia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 65% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Georgia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Georgia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Hawaii/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Hawaii/execute-results/html.json index 271881b8..bf12af8b 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Hawaii/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Hawaii/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Hawaii.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Hawaii. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Hawaii.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Hawaii.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Hawaii. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Hawaii.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Idaho/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Idaho/execute-results/html.json index 089d5613..255e4f30 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Idaho/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Idaho/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Idaho.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Idaho. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Idaho.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Idaho.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Idaho. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Idaho.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Illinois/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Illinois/execute-results/html.json index 9cf5f2c2..0564bdf3 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Illinois/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Illinois/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 98% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Illinois.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Illinois. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Illinois.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Illinois.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Illinois. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Illinois.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Indiana/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Indiana/execute-results/html.json index bbc8a000..33682531 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Indiana/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Indiana/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Indiana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Indiana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Indiana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Indiana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Iowa/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Iowa/execute-results/html.json index 0dc3a931..56256434 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Iowa/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Iowa/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 87% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Iowa.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Iowa.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 87% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Iowa.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Iowa.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Kansas/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Kansas/execute-results/html.json index 89add2ab..13702207 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Kansas/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Kansas/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 95% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Kansas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Kansas. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Kansas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 95% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Kansas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Kansas. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Kansas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Kentucky/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Kentucky/execute-results/html.json index 67049d5c..31bf3a88 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Kentucky/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Kentucky/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Kentucky.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Kentucky. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Kentucky.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Kentucky.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Kentucky. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Kentucky.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Louisiana/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Louisiana/execute-results/html.json index bc4c730c..1014bb74 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Louisiana/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Louisiana/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 96% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Louisiana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Louisiana. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Louisiana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 96% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Louisiana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Louisiana. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Louisiana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-1/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-1/execute-results/html.json index 61a3c8a2..6df13a01 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-1/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-1/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maine CD-1.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine CD-1.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maine CD-1.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine CD-1.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-2/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-2/execute-results/html.json index 19374bf1..e80c9803 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-2/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine CD-2/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 76% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Maine CD-2.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine CD-2.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 76% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Maine CD-2.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine CD-2.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine/execute-results/html.json index f1926fc6..50f41d57 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maine/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 94% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maine.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 94% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maine.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maine.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maryland/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maryland/execute-results/html.json index c9ae1969..2baf68a9 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Maryland/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Maryland/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maryland.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maryland.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Maryland.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Maryland.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Massachusetts/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Massachusetts/execute-results/html.json index 1e7f4a44..49eb60b7 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Massachusetts/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Massachusetts/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Massachusetts.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Massachusetts.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Massachusetts.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Massachusetts.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Michigan/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Michigan/execute-results/html.json index 01cc37bc..9504db46 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Michigan/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Michigan/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 56% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Michigan.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Michigan.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 57% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Michigan.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Michigan.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Minnesota/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Minnesota/execute-results/html.json index 04b3ea5e..4d91a00c 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Minnesota/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Minnesota/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 81% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Minnesota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Minnesota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 82% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Minnesota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Minnesota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Mississippi/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Mississippi/execute-results/html.json index 100db029..e41579b6 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Mississippi/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Mississippi/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 94% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Mississippi.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Mississippi. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Mississippi.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 94% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Mississippi.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Mississippi. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Mississippi.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Missouri/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Missouri/execute-results/html.json index 8a94ffdf..7bdfc691 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Missouri/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Missouri/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Missouri.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Missouri.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Missouri.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Missouri.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Montana/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Montana/execute-results/html.json index bfbe7461..91a50f96 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Montana/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Montana/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Montana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Montana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Montana.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Montana.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/National/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/National/execute-results/html.json index fcd91953..54c4b469 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/National/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/National/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "30f18cb853999354865df51e58333e90", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=80%}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 52% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in the electoral college.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=20%}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"12%\"}\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/dev/img/harris.png){width=120}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"38%\"}\n\n\n\n


**Kamala Harris** currently has a **48%** chance of being elected America's next president.\nShe's projected to win between **169** and **418** electoral college votes.

\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"12%\"}\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/dev/img/trump.png){width=120}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"38%\"}\n\n\n\n


**Donald Trump** currently has a **52%** chance of re-taking the white house.\nHe's projected to win between **120** and **369** electoral college votes.

\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Projected electoral college votes\nThe model is updated daily, blending state and national polls with non-polling predictors, like economic growth and presidential approval, to generate a range of potential outcomes in the electoral college.\nAs we get closer to election day, the uncertainty around the estimate will decrease.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\nThere is a less than 1% chance of a tie in the electoral college.\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Chance of winning each state\nState-level results determine the makeup of the electoral college.\nMost states heavily favor a particular party, leaving a few competitive battlegrounds that will be decisive in determining the next president.\nHover/click to see more information about a particular state.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Conditional outcomes\nFrom the thousands of simulations, the model can see how the electoral college outcome changes when each candidate wins in a specific state.\nIf Harris wins in a red-leaning state, for example, it's likelier that she also wins in competitive states.\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![](National_files/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png){width=1152}\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"70%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=80%}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 51% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in the electoral college.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=20%}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"12%\"}\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/dev/img/harris.png){width=120}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"38%\"}\n\n\n\n


**Kamala Harris** currently has a **49%** chance of being elected America's next president.\nShe's projected to win between **169** and **419** electoral college votes.

\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"12%\"}\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/dev/img/trump.png){width=120}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"38%\"}\n\n\n\n


**Donald Trump** currently has a **51%** chance of re-taking the white house.\nHe's projected to win between **119** and **369** electoral college votes.

\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Projected electoral college votes\nThe model is updated daily, blending state and national polls with non-polling predictors, like economic growth and presidential approval, to generate a range of potential outcomes in the electoral college.\nAs we get closer to election day, the uncertainty around the estimate will decrease.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\nThere is a less than 1% chance of a tie in the electoral college.\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Chance of winning each state\nState-level results determine the makeup of the electoral college.\nMost states heavily favor a particular party, leaving a few competitive battlegrounds that will be decisive in determining the next president.\nHover/click to see more information about a particular state.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Conditional outcomes\nFrom the thousands of simulations, the model can see how the electoral college outcome changes when each candidate wins in a specific state.\nIf Harris wins in a red-leaning state, for example, it's likelier that she also wins in competitive states.\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![](National_files/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png){width=1152}\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"70%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n", "supporting": [ "National_files" ], diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/National/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png b/_freeze/2024-potus/National/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png index ebb8ca0a..13183572 100644 Binary files a/_freeze/2024-potus/National/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png and b/_freeze/2024-potus/National/figure-html/plot-conditionals-1.png differ diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-1/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-1/execute-results/html.json index a41249ec..a072fdeb 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-1/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-1/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 93% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska CD-1.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Nebraska CD-1. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-1.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 93% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska CD-1.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Nebraska CD-1. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-1.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-2/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-2/execute-results/html.json index 6ebe3fb7..0b69056c 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-2/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-2/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 85% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Nebraska CD-2.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-2.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 86% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Nebraska CD-2.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-2.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-3/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-3/execute-results/html.json index e1b7f660..da3b8030 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-3/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska CD-3/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska CD-3.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Nebraska CD-3. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-3.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska CD-3.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Nebraska CD-3. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska CD-3.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska/execute-results/html.json index 3ea2a796..89ef9321 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nebraska/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Nebraska.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nebraska.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nevada/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nevada/execute-results/html.json index bbb5ac1e..f7ad0b35 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Nevada/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Nevada/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 52% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Nevada.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nevada.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 51% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Nevada.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Nevada.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Hampshire/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Hampshire/execute-results/html.json index 720f4a5d..5b291935 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Hampshire/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Hampshire/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 83% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Hampshire.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Hampshire.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 83% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Hampshire.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Hampshire.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Jersey/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Jersey/execute-results/html.json index 75961653..9ec850df 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Jersey/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Jersey/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 97% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Jersey.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in New Jersey. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Jersey.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 96% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Jersey.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in New Jersey. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Jersey.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Mexico/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Mexico/execute-results/html.json index 6535606d..3240eb20 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/New Mexico/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/New Mexico/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 89% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Mexico.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Mexico.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 89% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New Mexico.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New Mexico.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/New York/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/New York/execute-results/html.json index 2cae3351..0a7314d6 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/New York/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/New York/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New York.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New York.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in New York.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/New York.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/North Carolina/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/North Carolina/execute-results/html.json index 04705919..ef0f8645 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/North Carolina/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/North Carolina/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 66% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in North Carolina.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/North Carolina.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 65% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in North Carolina.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/North Carolina.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/North Dakota/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/North Dakota/execute-results/html.json index 50eb1937..070459d7 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/North Dakota/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/North Dakota/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in North Dakota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/North Dakota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in North Dakota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/North Dakota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Ohio/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Ohio/execute-results/html.json index 76c2f5c2..a926edad 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Ohio/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Ohio/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 97% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Ohio.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Ohio.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 97% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Ohio.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Ohio.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Oklahoma/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Oklahoma/execute-results/html.json index 02108b13..1131d9a6 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Oklahoma/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Oklahoma/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Oklahoma.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Oklahoma.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Oklahoma.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Oklahoma.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Oregon/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Oregon/execute-results/html.json index 510d6b86..30e8c9d0 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Oregon/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Oregon/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 94% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Oregon.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Oregon.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 94% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Oregon.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Oregon.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Pennsylvania/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Pennsylvania/execute-results/html.json index a5698d1c..4aba0c68 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Pennsylvania/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Pennsylvania/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 52% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Pennsylvania.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Pennsylvania.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 51% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Pennsylvania.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Pennsylvania.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Rhode Island/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Rhode Island/execute-results/html.json index 7b1d42d7..edc65cc2 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Rhode Island/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Rhode Island/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Rhode Island.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Rhode Island.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Rhode Island.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Rhode Island.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/South Carolina/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/South Carolina/execute-results/html.json index 7c8c2f18..400a89eb 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/South Carolina/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/South Carolina/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 97% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in South Carolina.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/South Carolina.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 97% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in South Carolina.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/South Carolina.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/South Dakota/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/South Dakota/execute-results/html.json index 67cc71bb..8038c319 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/South Dakota/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/South Dakota/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 98% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in South Dakota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in South Dakota. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/South Dakota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 98% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in South Dakota.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in South Dakota. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/South Dakota.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Tennessee/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Tennessee/execute-results/html.json index ac057bb0..ae581e6f 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Tennessee/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Tennessee/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Tennessee.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Tennessee. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Tennessee.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 98% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Tennessee.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Tennessee. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Tennessee.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Texas/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Texas/execute-results/html.json index 202ba152..2d388597 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Texas/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Texas/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 91% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Texas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Texas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a 92% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Texas.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Texas.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Utah/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Utah/execute-results/html.json index d3795690..37fc0928 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Utah/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Utah/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Utah.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Utah.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Utah.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Utah.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Vermont/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Vermont/execute-results/html.json index ac0a4678..164f8438 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Vermont/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Vermont/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Vermont.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Vermont.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Vermont.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Vermont.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Virginia/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Virginia/execute-results/html.json index dd53c2ac..23231573 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Virginia/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Virginia/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 87% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Virginia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Virginia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 87% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Virginia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Virginia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Washington/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Washington/execute-results/html.json index 5b4ccc0a..e32c5379 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Washington/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Washington/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Washington.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Washington.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Washington.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Washington.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/West Virginia/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/West Virginia/execute-results/html.json index 0690b398..2ff6fce8 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/West Virginia/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/West Virginia/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in West Virginia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/West Virginia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in West Virginia.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/West Virginia.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Wisconsin/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Wisconsin/execute-results/html.json index 2e330f9c..81972a4d 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Wisconsin/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Wisconsin/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 57% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Wisconsin.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Wisconsin.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Kamala Harris a 57% chance of beating Donald Trump** in Wisconsin.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Wisconsin.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/_freeze/2024-potus/Wyoming/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/2024-potus/Wyoming/execute-results/html.json index f5e5e8bc..eb63546a 100644 --- a/_freeze/2024-potus/Wyoming/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/2024-potus/Wyoming/execute-results/html.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "hash": "33ef22863f8e8a8325bc405c8322e46f", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 6th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Wyoming.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Wyoming. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Wyoming.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", + "markdown": "---\nformat: \n html:\n code-fold: true\n page-layout: custom\n fig-align: center\n fig-width: 12\n fig-height: 4\nexecute: \n message: false\n warning: false\n echo: false\nparams:\n state: \"Oklahoma\"\n branch: \"dev\"\n---\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n::::: {.column-body-custom}\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"80%\"}\n\n\nAs of October 7th, the forecast gives **Donald Trump a >99% chance of beating Kamala Harris** in Wyoming.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"20%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Presidential probabilities\nEach day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races.\nEach candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### Forecasted election-day voteshare\nThe model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse.\nIt then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n
*No polls have been conducted in Wyoming. The projected voteshare is estimated using economic and approval indicators, as well as polling information from similar states.*
\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n\n\n### State similarities\nThe model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another.\nSimilar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.\n\n\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n:::\n::::\n\n\n\n![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/main/img/Wyoming.png){height=700 fig-align='center'}\n\n\n\n---\n\n:::: {.columns}\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n\n\nSources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com\n
\n
\n[{{< fa brands github >}} View the source code](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main)\n
\n[{{< fa solid database >}} Explore the output](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/tree/main/out)\n\n\n\n:::\n::::\n\n---\n\n:::::\n\n::::: {.column-margin-custom}\n\n\n\n**[National Forecast](National.qmd)**
[How this works](../posts/2024-07-04-forecast-methodology/index.qmd)\n\n
**Competitive states**
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)\n\n
**All states**
[Alabama](Alabama.qmd)
[Alaska](Alaska.qmd)
[Arizona](Arizona.qmd)
[Arkansas](Arkansas.qmd)
[California](California.qmd)
[Colorado](Colorado.qmd)
[Connecticut](Connecticut.qmd)
[Delaware](Delaware.qmd)
[District of Columbia](District of Columbia.qmd)
[Florida](Florida.qmd)
[Georgia](Georgia.qmd)
[Hawaii](Hawaii.qmd)
[Idaho](Idaho.qmd)
[Illinois](Illinois.qmd)
[Indiana](Indiana.qmd)
[Iowa](Iowa.qmd)
[Kansas](Kansas.qmd)
[Kentucky](Kentucky.qmd)
[Louisiana](Louisiana.qmd)
[Maine CD-1](Maine CD-1.qmd)
[Maine CD-2](Maine CD-2.qmd)
[Maine](Maine.qmd)
[Maryland](Maryland.qmd)
[Massachusetts](Massachusetts.qmd)
[Michigan](Michigan.qmd)
[Minnesota](Minnesota.qmd)
[Mississippi](Mississippi.qmd)
[Missouri](Missouri.qmd)
[Montana](Montana.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-1](Nebraska CD-1.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-2](Nebraska CD-2.qmd)
[Nebraska CD-3](Nebraska CD-3.qmd)
[Nebraska](Nebraska.qmd)
[Nevada](Nevada.qmd)
[New Hampshire](New Hampshire.qmd)
[New Jersey](New Jersey.qmd)
[New Mexico](New Mexico.qmd)
[New York](New York.qmd)
[North Carolina](North Carolina.qmd)
[North Dakota](North Dakota.qmd)
[Ohio](Ohio.qmd)
[Oklahoma](Oklahoma.qmd)
[Oregon](Oregon.qmd)
[Pennsylvania](Pennsylvania.qmd)
[Rhode Island](Rhode Island.qmd)
[South Carolina](South Carolina.qmd)
[South Dakota](South Dakota.qmd)
[Tennessee](Tennessee.qmd)
[Texas](Texas.qmd)
[Utah](Utah.qmd)
[Vermont](Vermont.qmd)
[Virginia](Virginia.qmd)
[Washington](Washington.qmd)
[West Virginia](West Virginia.qmd)
[Wisconsin](Wisconsin.qmd)
[Wyoming](Wyoming.qmd)\n\n\n\n:::::\n\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua"