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Update index.jl (#412)
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athowes authored Jul 31, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -455,7 +455,7 @@ Because we are using synthetic data we can also plot the model predictions for t
We find that the `EpiAware` model recovers the main finding in _Mishra et al_; that the $R_t$ in South Korea peaked at a very high value ($R_t \sim 10$ at peak) before rapidly dropping below 1 in early March 2020.
Note that, in reality, the peak $R_t$ found here and in _Mishra et al) is unrealistically high, this might be due to a combination of:
Note that, in reality, the peak $R_t$ found here and in _Mishra et al_ is unrealistically high, this might be due to a combination of:
- A mis-estimated generation interval/serial interval distribution.
- An ascertainment rate that was, in reality, changing over time.
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