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Raise warning in QuantileForecast.mean when mean is not there #2843

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merged 2 commits into from
Aug 30, 2023

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@lostella lostella commented May 9, 2023

Issue #, if available:

Description of changes: The QuantileForecast class falls back to the median when asked for the mean but the mean is not among the stored values. This is motivated by some downstream evaluation metrics using the mean of the predicted distribution, but some models only producing quantiles as forecasts.

To me this is pretty clearly not the right thing to do, and potential source of confusion: instead, it should be clear how to configure the evaluation to use the predicted median instead of the mean, if that's what the user wants.

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Please tag this pr with at least one of these labels to make our release process faster: BREAKING, new feature, bug fix, other change, dev setup

@lostella lostella added enhancement New feature or request BREAKING This is a breaking change (one of pr required labels) labels May 9, 2023
@lostella lostella added this to the v0.14 milestone May 9, 2023
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Note: add warning instead, so that it's not breaking

@lostella lostella force-pushed the fix-quantile-forecast-mean branch from 9a6dee1 to 99328ce Compare August 30, 2023 09:37
@lostella lostella removed the BREAKING This is a breaking change (one of pr required labels) label Aug 30, 2023
@lostella lostella marked this pull request as ready for review August 30, 2023 09:37
@lostella lostella requested a review from abdulfatir August 30, 2023 09:37
@lostella lostella changed the title Remove falling back to median when mean is not in QuantileForecast Raise warning in QuantileForecast.mean when mean is not there Aug 30, 2023
@lostella lostella added the pending v0.13.x backport This contains a fix to be backported to the v0.13.x branch label Aug 30, 2023
@lostella lostella merged commit 7c4b05d into awslabs:dev Aug 30, 2023
@lostella lostella deleted the fix-quantile-forecast-mean branch August 30, 2023 09:53
lostella added a commit to lostella/gluonts that referenced this pull request Sep 15, 2023
@lostella lostella mentioned this pull request Sep 18, 2023
lostella added a commit that referenced this pull request Sep 18, 2023
* Raise warning in `QuantileForecast.mean` when mean is not there (#2843)

* [R] Bug fix for running R methods via ParallelizedPredictor (#2983)

* Fix Forecast plot method (#3006)

Latest matplotlib update had broken it since we were using internal API

* fixup to support py37

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Co-authored-by: Syama Sundar Rangapuram <[email protected]>
@lostella lostella removed the pending v0.13.x backport This contains a fix to be backported to the v0.13.x branch label Oct 2, 2023
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