Increase HP awareness over time (#143)

* Increase HP awareness over time

- Initial HP awareness at t=0 defined as input using arg `heat-pump-awareness`
- Add intervention which, when applied, increases the number of agents that become HP aware over time
- This is achieved using a sigmoid probability function to determine the probability of a given agent becoming heat pump aware if they are not already

* Update BUS grant cap based on latest data

- Reduce standard BUS grant cap since we are now starting the simulation in 2024 (r.t. 2022)
- Increase the funding cap for the extended BUS based on gov announcement: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/families-business-and-industry-to-get-energy-efficiency-support

k8s/job.jsonnet

@@ -100,6 +100,18 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
     '0.182',
   ]),
+  job('03g-%s-awareness-intervention-policy' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+    '--intervention',
+    'heat_pump_awareness',
+    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
+    '2026-01-01:0.3',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
+    '0.0682',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
+    '0.182',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness-intervention-factor',
+    '0.05',
+  ]),
   job('04a-%s-max-policy' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--intervention',
     'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
@@ -158,6 +170,29 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     '0.182',
     '--include-new-builds'
   ]),
+  job('04d-%s-max-policy-awareness-intervention' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+    '--intervention',
+    'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
+    '--intervention',
+    'heat_pump_awareness',
+    '--intervention',
+    'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',
+    '2035-01-01',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-announce-date',
+    '2025-01-01',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness',
+    '0.5',
+    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
+    '2026-01-01:0.3',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
+    '0.0682',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
+    '0.182',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness-intervention-factor',
+    '0.05',
+    '--include-new-builds',
+  ]),
   job('05-%s-max-industry' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--heat-pump-awareness',
     '0.5',

simulation/__main__.py

@@ -146,6 +146,13 @@ def format_uuid(str):
         help="Include new build projections (from constants.py). Installers will also build heat pumps in new builds from 2025.",
     )
 
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--heat-pump-awareness-intervention-factor",
+        type=float_between_0_and_1,
+        default=0.1,
+        help="A value between 0 and 1 which determines how quickly heat pump awareness increases over time with the heat pump awareness intervention. A value of 0 is equivalent to not applying the heat pump awareness intervention.",
+    )
+
     def check_string_is_isoformat_datetime(string) -> str:
         datetime.datetime.fromisoformat(string)
         return string
@@ -226,6 +233,7 @@ def validate_args(args):
             args.heat_pump_installer_count,
             args.heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
             ENGLAND_WALES_ANNUAL_NEW_BUILDS if args.include_new_builds else None,
+            args.heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor,
         )
 
         with smart_open.open(args.history_file, "w") as file:

simulation/agents.py

@@ -101,6 +101,11 @@ def reverse_sigmoid(x: float, k: float = SIGMOID_K, offset: float = SIGMOID_OFFS
     return 1 / (1 + math.exp(k * (x + offset)))
 
 
+def heat_pump_awareness_intervention(x: float, m: float):
+
+    return min(m * x, 1)
+
+
 class Household(Agent):
     def __init__(
         self,
@@ -416,6 +421,14 @@ def get_proba_rule_out_banned_heating_systems(self, model):
 
         return reverse_sigmoid(years_to_ban)
 
+    def get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(self, model):
+
+        years_since_start = (model.current_datetime - model.start_datetime).days / 365
+
+        return heat_pump_awareness_intervention(
+            years_since_start, model.heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor
+        )
+
     def get_heating_system_options(
         self, model: "DomesticHeatingABM", event_trigger: EventTrigger
     ) -> Set[HeatingSystem]:
@@ -440,6 +453,13 @@ def get_heating_system_options(
                     [HeatingSystem.BOILER_GAS, HeatingSystem.BOILER_OIL]
                 )
 
+        if InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS in model.interventions:
+            # if awareness intervention used, allow for more agents to become aware of heat pumps
+            if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:
+                self.is_heat_pump_aware = true_with_probability(
+                    self.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(model)
+                )
+
         if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_announced:
             # if a gas/boiler ban is announced, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
             if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:

simulation/constants.py

@@ -206,6 +206,7 @@ class InterventionType(enum.Enum):
     BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 1
     GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN = 2
     EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 3
+    HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS = 4
 
 
 # Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/datasets/householdsbytypeofhouseholdandfamilyregionsofenglandandukconstituentcountries

simulation/costs.py

@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ def estimate_boiler_upgrade_scheme_grant(
         return 0
 
     model_population_scale = ENGLAND_WALES_HOUSEHOLD_COUNT_2020 / model.household_count
-    boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp = 450_000_000 / model_population_scale
+    boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp = 237_500_000 / model_population_scale
     if (
         model.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp
         >= boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp
@@ -345,7 +345,7 @@ def estimate_extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme_grant(
         return 0
 
     model_population_scale = ENGLAND_WALES_HOUSEHOLD_COUNT_2020 / model.household_count
-    boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp = 1_650_000_000 / model_population_scale
+    boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp = 5_400_000_000 / model_population_scale
     if (
         model.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp
         >= boiler_upgrade_funding_cap_gbp

simulation/model.py

@@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ def __init__(
         heat_pump_installer_count: int,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
         annual_new_builds: Optional[Dict[int, int]],
+        heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor: float,
     ):
         self.start_datetime = start_datetime
         self.step_interval = step_interval
@@ -74,6 +75,9 @@ def __init__(
         )
         self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
         self.annual_new_builds = annual_new_builds
+        self.heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor = (
+            heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor
+        )
 
         super().__init__(UnorderedSpace())
 
@@ -263,6 +267,7 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
     heat_pump_installer_count: int,
     heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
     annual_new_builds: Dict[int, int],
+    heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor: float,
 ):
 
     model = DomesticHeatingABM(
@@ -282,6 +287,7 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
         heat_pump_installer_count=heat_pump_installer_count,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate=heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
         annual_new_builds=annual_new_builds,
+        heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor=heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor,
     )
 
     households = create_household_agents(

simulation/tests/common.py

@@ -57,6 +57,7 @@ def model_factory(**model_attributes):
         "heat_pump_installer_count": 2_800,
         "heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate": 0,
         "annual_new_builds": None,
+        "heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor": 0.0,
     }
 
     return DomesticHeatingABM(**{**default_values, **model_attributes})

simulation/tests/household_population.csv

@@ -7,4 +7,4 @@ id,location,property_value_gbp,total_floor_area_m2,is_off_gas_grid,construction_
 5,BIRMINGHAM,500000,100,True,BUILT_PRE_1900,BUNGALOW,MID_TERRACE,BOILER_OIL,F,B,RENTED_SOCIAL,False,3,4,4,False
 6,BIRMINGHAM,400000,190,False,BUILT_1900_1929,FLAT,END_TERRACE,BOILER_ELECTRIC,E,C,RENTED_PRIVATE,False,1,4,4,False
 7,LONDON,300000,50,True,BUILT_1900_1929,FLAT,SEMI_DETACHED,BOILER_GAS,F,E,OWNER_OCCUPIED,True,2,1,3,True
-8,MANCHESTER,600000,80,False,BUILT_PRE_1900,BUNGALOW,MID_TERRACE,BOILER_OIL,B,B,RENTED_PRIVATE,True,2,3,2,False
+8,MANCHESTER,600000,80,False,BUILT_PRE_1900,BUNGALOW,MID_TERRACE,BOILER_OIL,B,B,RENTED_PRIVATE,True,2,3,2,False

simulation/tests/test_agents.py

@@ -697,6 +697,43 @@ def test_household_ability_to_choose_heat_pump_as_option_depends_on_model_heat_p
 
         assert all(heat_pump in heating_system_options for heat_pump in HEAT_PUMPS)
 
+    def test_households_increasingly_likely_to_become_heat_pump_aware(
+        self,
+    ):
+        household = household_factory()
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS],
+            heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor=0.1,
+        )
+
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware = household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(
+            model
+        )
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware_updated = (
+            household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(model)
+        )
+
+        assert proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware < proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware_updated
+
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_increase_is_zero_in_first_year(
+        self,
+    ):
+        household = household_factory()
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2024, 1, 1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS],
+            heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor=0.1,
+        )
+
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware = household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(
+            model
+        )
+
+        assert proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware == 0
+
 
 class TestAgentsWithBoilerBan:
     def test_households_increasingly_likely_to_rule_out_heating_systems_that_will_be_banned_as_time_to_ban_decreases(

simulation/tests/test_costs.py

@@ -227,7 +227,7 @@ def test_boiler_upgrade_scheme_grant_is_zero_when_grant_cap_exceeded(
         model_population_scale = (
             ENGLAND_WALES_HOUSEHOLD_COUNT_2020 / model.household_count
         )
-        boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled = 450_000_000 / model_population_scale
+        boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled = 237_500_000 / model_population_scale
 
         model.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp = (
             boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled * 0.8
@@ -338,7 +338,7 @@ def test_extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme_grant_is_zero_when_grant_cap_exceeded(
         model_population_scale = (
             ENGLAND_WALES_HOUSEHOLD_COUNT_2020 / model.household_count
         )
-        boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled = 1_650_000_000 / model_population_scale
+        boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled = 5_400_000_000 / model_population_scale
 
         model.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp = (
             boiler_upgrade_scheme_budget_scaled * 0.8

simulation/tests/test_main.py

@@ -99,6 +99,24 @@ def test_rented_heating_system_hassle_factor_must_be_between_0_and_1(
                 [*mandatory_local_args, "--rented-heating-system-hassle-factor", "10"]
             )
 
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor(self, mandatory_local_args):
+        args = parse_args(
+            [*mandatory_local_args, "--rented-heating-system-hassle-factor", "0.05"]
+        )
+        assert args.rented_heating_system_hassle_factor == 0.05
+
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_intervention_factor_must_be_between_0_and_1(
+        self, mandatory_local_args
+    ):
+        with pytest.raises(SystemExit):
+            parse_args(
+                [
+                    *mandatory_local_args,
+                    "--heat-pump-awareness-intervention-factor",
+                    "10.0",
+                ]
+            )
+
     def test_help_flag(self):
         with pytest.raises(SystemExit):
             parse_args(["-h"])
@@ -158,13 +176,16 @@ def test_intervention_argument(self, mandatory_local_args):
                 "boiler_upgrade_scheme",
                 "--intervention",
                 "extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme",
+                "--intervention",
+                "heat_pump_awareness",
             ]
         )
 
         assert args.intervention == [
             InterventionType.RHI,
             InterventionType.BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
             InterventionType.EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
+            InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS,
         ]
 
     def test_gas_oil_boiler_ban_date_returns_datetime(self, mandatory_local_args):