Increase HP awareness over time

- Initial HP awareness at t=0 defined as input using arg `heat-pump-awareness`
- Add intervention which, when applied, increases the number of agents that become HP aware over time
- This is achieved using a sigmoid probability function to determine the probability of a given agent becoming heat pump aware if they are not already

k8s/job.jsonnet

@@ -100,6 +100,16 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
     '0.182',
   ]),
+  job('03g-%s-awareness-intervention-policy' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+    '--intervention',
+    'heat_pump_awareness',
+    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
+    '2026-01-01:0.3',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
+    '0.0682',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
+    '0.182',
+  ]),
   job('04a-%s-max-policy' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--intervention',
     'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
@@ -158,6 +168,27 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     '0.182',
     '--include-new-builds'
   ]),
+  job('04d-%s-max-policy-awareness-intervention' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+    '--intervention',
+    'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
+    '--intervention',
+    'heat_pump_awareness',
+    '--intervention',
+    'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',
+    '2035-01-01',
+    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-announce-date',
+    '2025-01-01',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness',
+    '0.5',
+    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
+    '2026-01-01:0.3',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
+    '0.0682',
+    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
+    '0.182',
+    '--include-new-builds',
+  ]),
   job('05-%s-max-industry' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--heat-pump-awareness',
     '0.5',

simulation/agents.py

@@ -101,6 +101,12 @@ def reverse_sigmoid(x: float, k: float = SIGMOID_K, offset: float = SIGMOID_OFFS
     return 1 / (1 + math.exp(k * (x + offset)))
 
 
+def sigmoid(x: float, k: float = SIGMOID_K):
+    # Sigmoid function with y bounded between 0 & 1
+
+    return 2 * 1 / (1 + math.exp(-k * (x / 10))) - 1
+
+
 class Household(Agent):
     def __init__(
         self,
@@ -416,6 +422,12 @@ def get_proba_rule_out_banned_heating_systems(self, model):
 
         return reverse_sigmoid(years_to_ban)
 
+    def get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(self, model):
+
+        years_since_start = (model.current_datetime - model.start_datetime).days / 365
+
+        return sigmoid(years_since_start)
+
     def get_heating_system_options(
         self, model: "DomesticHeatingABM", event_trigger: EventTrigger
     ) -> Set[HeatingSystem]:
@@ -440,6 +452,13 @@ def get_heating_system_options(
                     [HeatingSystem.BOILER_GAS, HeatingSystem.BOILER_OIL]
                 )
 
+        if InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS in model.interventions:
+            # if awareness intervention used, allow for more agents to become aware of heat pumps
+            if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:
+                self.is_heat_pump_aware = true_with_probability(
+                    self.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(model)
+                )
+
         if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_announced:
             # if a gas/boiler ban is announced, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
             if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:

simulation/constants.py

@@ -206,6 +206,7 @@ class InterventionType(enum.Enum):
     BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 1
     GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN = 2
     EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 3
+    HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS = 4
 
 
 # Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/datasets/householdsbytypeofhouseholdandfamilyregionsofenglandandukconstituentcountries

simulation/tests/test_agents.py

@@ -697,6 +697,41 @@ def test_household_ability_to_choose_heat_pump_as_option_depends_on_model_heat_p
 
         assert all(heat_pump in heating_system_options for heat_pump in HEAT_PUMPS)
 
+    def test_households_increasingly_likely_to_become_heat_pump_aware(
+        self,
+    ):
+        household = household_factory()
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS],
+        )
+
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware = household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(
+            model
+        )
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware_updated = (
+            household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(model)
+        )
+
+        assert proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware < proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware_updated
+
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_increase_is_zero_in_first_year(
+        self,
+    ):
+        household = household_factory()
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2024, 1, 1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS],
+        )
+
+        proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware = household.get_proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware(
+            model
+        )
+
+        assert proba_becomes_heat_pump_aware == 0
+
 
 class TestAgentsWithBoilerBan:
     def test_households_increasingly_likely_to_rule_out_heating_systems_that_will_be_banned_as_time_to_ban_decreases(

simulation/tests/test_main.py

@@ -158,13 +158,16 @@ def test_intervention_argument(self, mandatory_local_args):
                 "boiler_upgrade_scheme",
                 "--intervention",
                 "extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme",
+                "--intervention",
+                "heat_pump_awareness",
             ]
         )
 
         assert args.intervention == [
             InterventionType.RHI,
             InterventionType.BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
             InterventionType.EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
+            InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_AWARENESS,
         ]
 
     def test_gas_oil_boiler_ban_date_returns_datetime(self, mandatory_local_args):