Update household heat pump awareness over time

simulation/__main__.py

@@ -178,6 +178,18 @@ def check_string_is_isoformat_datetime(string) -> str:
     parser.add_argument("--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity", type=float, default=0.245)
     parser.add_argument("--price-gbp-per-kwh-oil", type=float, default=0.068)
 
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--heat-pump-awareness-campaign-date",
+        default=datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
+        type=convert_to_datetime,
+    )
+
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness",
+        default=0.8,
+        type=float_between_0_and_1,
+    )
+
     return parser.parse_args(args)
 
 
@@ -187,6 +199,11 @@ def validate_args(args):
             f"Boiler ban announcement date must be on or before ban date, got gas_oil_boiler_ban_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_date}, gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date}"
         )
 
+    if args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness < args.heat_pump_awareness:
+        raise ValueError(
+            f"Campaign target awareness must be greater than or equal to the population heat pump awareness, got campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness:{args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness}, heat_pump_awareness:{args.heat_pump_awareness}"
+        )
+
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":
 
@@ -226,6 +243,8 @@ def validate_args(args):
             args.heat_pump_installer_count,
             args.heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
             ENGLAND_WALES_ANNUAL_NEW_BUILDS if args.include_new_builds else None,
+            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+            args.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
         )
 
         with smart_open.open(args.history_file, "w") as file:

simulation/agents.py

@@ -440,8 +440,12 @@ def get_heating_system_options(
                     [HeatingSystem.BOILER_GAS, HeatingSystem.BOILER_OIL]
                 )
 
-        if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_announced:
-            # if a gas/boiler ban is announced, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
+        is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_in_place = (
+            InterventionType.GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN in model.interventions
+            and model.current_datetime >= model.gas_oil_boiler_ban_datetime
+        )
+        if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_in_place:
+            # if a gas/boiler ban is in place, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
             if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:
                 heating_system_options -= HEAT_PUMPS
 
@@ -611,8 +615,34 @@ def compute_heat_pump_capacity_kw(self, heat_pump_type: HeatingSystem) -> int:
             )
         )
 
+    def proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
+        self, model
+    ) -> float:
+        return (
+            model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+            - model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+        ) / (1 - model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep)
+
+    def update_heat_pump_awareness(self, model) -> None:
+        if (
+            InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN in model.interventions
+            and model.current_datetime >= model.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
+            and model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+            < model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+            and not self.is_heat_pump_aware
+        ):
+            proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware = self.proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
+                model
+            )
+            self.is_heat_pump_aware = true_with_probability(
+                proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware
+            )
+            if self.is_heat_pump_aware:
+                model.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware += 1
+
     def make_decisions(self, model):
 
+        self.update_heat_pump_awareness(model)
         self.update_heating_status(model)
         self.evaluate_renovation(model)
 

simulation/collectors.py

@@ -277,6 +277,10 @@ def model_heat_pump_installations_at_current_step(model) -> int:
     return model.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step
 
 
+def model_heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep(model) -> float:
+    return model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+
 def is_first_timestep(model: "DomesticHeatingABM") -> bool:
     return model.current_datetime == model.start_datetime + model.step_interval
 
@@ -303,7 +307,6 @@ def get_agent_collectors(
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_discount_rate),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_renovation_budget),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_is_heat_pump_suitable),
-        collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_is_heat_pump_aware),
         household_heating_system,
         household_heating_system_previous,
         household_heating_functioning,
@@ -340,6 +343,7 @@ def get_agent_collectors(
         household_heating_system_costs_insulation_heat_pump_air_source,
         household_heating_system_costs_insulation_heat_pump_ground_source,
         household_boiler_upgrade_grant_used,
+        household_is_heat_pump_aware,
     ]
 
 
@@ -355,4 +359,5 @@ def get_model_collectors(
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_gas),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_electricity),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_oil),
+        model_heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep,
     ]

simulation/constants.py

@@ -206,6 +206,7 @@ class InterventionType(enum.Enum):
     BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 1
     GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN = 2
     EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 3
+    HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN = 4
 
 
 # Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/datasets/householdsbytypeofhouseholdandfamilyregionsofenglandandukconstituentcountries

simulation/model.py

@@ -46,6 +46,10 @@ def __init__(
         heat_pump_installer_count: int,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
         annual_new_builds: Optional[Dict[int, int]],
+        heat_pump_awareness: float,
+        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness: List[bool],
     ):
         self.start_datetime = start_datetime
         self.step_interval = step_interval
@@ -74,6 +78,13 @@ def __init__(
         )
         self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
         self.annual_new_builds = annual_new_builds
+        self.heat_pump_awareness = heat_pump_awareness
+        self.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness = campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+        self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date = heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
+
+        self.population_heat_pump_awareness = population_heat_pump_awareness
+        self.num_households_heat_pump_aware = sum(population_heat_pump_awareness)
+        self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware = 0
 
         super().__init__(UnorderedSpace())
 
@@ -193,6 +204,13 @@ def boiler_upgrade_scheme_spend_gbp(self) -> int:
             ]
         )
 
+    @property
+    def heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep(self) -> float:
+        return (
+            self.num_households_heat_pump_aware
+            + self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware
+        ) / self.household_count
+
     def increment_timestep(self):
         self.current_datetime += self.step_interval
         self.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp += (
@@ -203,11 +221,11 @@ def increment_timestep(self):
 
 def create_household_agents(
     household_population: pd.DataFrame,
-    heat_pump_awareness: float,
+    population_heat_pump_awareness: List[bool],
     simulation_start_datetime: datetime.datetime,
     all_agents_heat_pump_suitable: bool,
 ) -> Iterator[Household]:
-    for household in household_population.itertuples():
+    for i, household in enumerate(household_population.itertuples()):
         yield Household(
             id=household.id,
             location=household.location,
@@ -236,7 +254,7 @@ def create_household_agents(
             is_heat_pump_suitable_archetype=True
             if all_agents_heat_pump_suitable
             else household.is_heat_pump_suitable_archetype,
-            is_heat_pump_aware=random.random() < heat_pump_awareness,
+            is_heat_pump_aware=population_heat_pump_awareness[i],
         )
 
 
@@ -263,8 +281,14 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
     heat_pump_installer_count: int,
     heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
     annual_new_builds: Dict[int, int],
+    campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
+    heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
 ):
 
+    population_heat_pump_awareness = [
+        random.random() < heat_pump_awareness for _ in range(len(household_population))
+    ]
+
     model = DomesticHeatingABM(
         start_datetime=start_datetime,
         step_interval=step_interval,
@@ -282,11 +306,15 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
         heat_pump_installer_count=heat_pump_installer_count,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate=heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
         annual_new_builds=annual_new_builds,
+        heat_pump_awareness=heat_pump_awareness,
+        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness=population_heat_pump_awareness,
     )
 
     households = create_household_agents(
         household_population,
-        heat_pump_awareness,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness,
         model.start_datetime,
         all_agents_heat_pump_suitable,
     )

simulation/tests/common.py

@@ -57,6 +57,10 @@ def model_factory(**model_attributes):
         "heat_pump_installer_count": 2_800,
         "heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate": 0,
         "annual_new_builds": None,
+        "heat_pump_awareness": 0.5,
+        "campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness": 0.8,
+        "heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date": datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
+        "population_heat_pump_awareness": [],
     }
 
     return DomesticHeatingABM(**{**default_values, **model_attributes})

simulation/tests/test_agents.py

@@ -697,6 +697,82 @@ def test_household_ability_to_choose_heat_pump_as_option_depends_on_model_heat_p
 
         assert all(heat_pump in heating_system_options for heat_pump in HEAT_PUMPS)
 
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_updated_after_successful_campaign(
+        self,
+    ):
+
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
+            step_interval=relativedelta(months=1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN],
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=datetime.datetime(2025, 3, 1),
+            campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=1.0,
+        )
+        agent = household_factory(is_heat_pump_aware=False)
+        model.add_agents([agent])
+
+        agent_awarness_before_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_before_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        # Expect heat pump awareness to be 0 for first two timesteps, increasing to 1 after campaign date
+        assert not agent_awarness_before_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_before_campaign) == 0.0
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        agent.make_decisions(model)
+        agent_awarness_before_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_before_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        assert not agent_awarness_before_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_before_campaign) == 0.0
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        agent.make_decisions(model)
+        agent_awarness_after_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_after_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        assert agent_awarness_after_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_after_campaign) == 1.0
+
+        # Check agent stays aware for another timestep...
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        agent.make_decisions(model)
+        agent_awarness_after_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_after_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        assert agent_awarness_after_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_after_campaign) == 1.0
+
+    def test_heat_pump_awareness_does_not_increase_when_campaign_target_is_same_as_current_awareness(
+        self,
+    ):
+
+        model = model_factory(
+            start_datetime=datetime.datetime(2025, 1, 1),
+            step_interval=relativedelta(months=1),
+            interventions=[InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN],
+            heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=datetime.datetime(2025, 2, 1),
+            heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
+            campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=0.0,
+            population_heat_pump_awareness=[False],
+        )
+        agent = household_factory(is_heat_pump_aware=False)
+        model.add_agents([agent])
+
+        agent_awarness_before_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_before_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        assert not agent_awarness_before_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_before_campaign) == 0.0
+
+        model.increment_timestep()
+        agent.make_decisions(model)
+        agent_awarness_after_campaign = agent.is_heat_pump_aware
+        model_awarness_after_campaign = model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+        assert not agent_awarness_after_campaign
+        assert pytest.approx(model_awarness_after_campaign) == 0.0
+
 
 class TestAgentsWithBoilerBan:
     def test_households_increasingly_likely_to_rule_out_heating_systems_that_will_be_banned_as_time_to_ban_decreases(

simulation/tests/test_main.py

@@ -158,13 +158,16 @@ def test_intervention_argument(self, mandatory_local_args):
                 "boiler_upgrade_scheme",
                 "--intervention",
                 "extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme",
+                "--intervention",
+                "heat_pump_campaign",
             ]
         )
 
         assert args.intervention == [
             InterventionType.RHI,
             InterventionType.BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
             InterventionType.EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME,
+            InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN,
         ]
 
     def test_gas_oil_boiler_ban_date_returns_datetime(self, mandatory_local_args):
@@ -289,3 +292,18 @@ def test_ban_date_before_announcement_date_raises_value_error(
         )
         with pytest.raises(ValueError):
             validate_args(args)
+
+    def test_campaign_target_less_than_heat_pump_awareness_raises_value_error(
+        self, mandatory_local_args
+    ):
+        args = parse_args(
+            [
+                *mandatory_local_args,
+                "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness",
+                "0.1",
+                "--heat-pump-awareness",
+                "0.5",
+            ]
+        )
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+            validate_args(args)

simulation/tests/test_model.py

@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ def test_create_household_agents() -> None:
             "is_heat_pump_suitable_archetype": [True],
         }
     )
-    heat_pump_awareness = 0.4
+    heat_pump_awareness = [True]
     simulation_start_datetime = datetime.datetime.now()
     all_agents_heat_pump_suitable = False
     household_agents = create_household_agents(