cmip6-temperature-demo

A handful of tutorials for basic analysis of climate models from CMIP6 on the Google Cloud Platform

Analyzing state-of-the-art simulations of global warming (historical and future projections)

The following binder is a tutorial for calculating and visualizing historical global warming.

Extending the analysis to projections of the future (out to 2100) is left as a guided exercise to the user, and solutions are provided in:

Calculating the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)

The following binder is a tutorial for calculating the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, i.e. the amount of warming at equilibrium due to a doubling to CO2, in the CMIP6 models, plotted as a probability histogram and a bar plot.

Note: the ECS estimated here using the Gregory method are biased low because of the linear extrapolation (see Knutti and Rugenstein 2015) but biased high by the use of a quadrupling (feedbacks are not constant!). Possibly more realistic results are obtained if the linear fit is calculated for later years, e.g. 20-150 or 100-150. See Angeline Pendergrass' repo which does the same thing on the NCAR filesystem and includes several more models (also accounts for multiple realizations for each model).