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jvivian committed Mar 9, 2024
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions _freeze/posts/dr-dfm-covid/index/execute-results/html.json

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion docs/index.html
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Expand Up @@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ <h5 class="quarto-listing-category-title">Categories</h5><div class="quarto-list

<div class="quarto-listing quarto-listing-container-default" id="listing-listing">
<div class="list quarto-listing-default">
<div class="quarto-post image-right" data-index="0" data-categories="Math,Modeling,Python" data-listing-date-sort="1709971200000" data-listing-file-modified-sort="1710024008035" data-listing-date-modified-sort="NaN" data-listing-reading-time-sort="11">
<div class="quarto-post image-right" data-index="0" data-categories="Math,Modeling,Python" data-listing-date-sort="1709971200000" data-listing-file-modified-sort="1710024249349" data-listing-date-modified-sort="NaN" data-listing-reading-time-sort="11">
<div class="thumbnail">
<p><a href="./posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html"> <img src="./posts/dr-dfm-covid/jv_dfm.jpg" class="thumbnail-image"> </a></p>
</div>
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131 changes: 1 addition & 130 deletions docs/posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion docs/posts/kd-art/index.html
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Expand Up @@ -997,7 +997,7 @@ <h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="tools-versioning">Tools &amp; Versioning</h
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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions docs/posts/kd-inked-into-creation/index.html
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Expand Up @@ -261,7 +261,7 @@ <h1 class="title">Inked Into Creation</h1>
<p>“Surely this must be the greatest game ever made! I must immediately find and play it!”</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><a href="imgs/dorfs.png" class="lightbox" title="13 year old me: “What the fuck is this?”" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-10"><img src="imgs/dorfs.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<p><a href="imgs/dorfs.png" class="lightbox" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-10" title="13 year old me: “What the fuck is this?”"><img src="imgs/dorfs.png" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<figcaption class="figure-caption">13 year old me: “What the fuck is this?”</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
Expand All @@ -270,7 +270,7 @@ <h1 class="title">Inked Into Creation</h1>
<p>I ended up working on this, in some capacity, every day for almost three months (and am still working on it…). I got interested in Stable Diffusion and using <a href="https://jvivian.github.io/blog/posts/kd-art/">Kingdom Death miniatures as the basis for some of the artwork</a>.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><a href="imgs/mpythong.jpg" class="lightbox" title="And now for something, completely different" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-11"><img src="imgs/mpythong.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<p><a href="imgs/mpythong.jpg" class="lightbox" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-11" title="And now for something, completely different"><img src="imgs/mpythong.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<figcaption class="figure-caption">And now for something, completely different</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -427,7 +427,7 @@ <h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="year-7-phoenix-feather-plague">Year 7: Phoe
<div class="callout-body-container callout-body">
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><a href="imgs/bonk.jpg" class="lightbox" title="BONK! Gotcha 😏" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-13"><img src="imgs/bonk.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<p><a href="imgs/bonk.jpg" class="lightbox" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-13" title="BONK! Gotcha 😏"><img src="imgs/bonk.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<figcaption class="figure-caption">BONK! Gotcha 😏</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
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<div class="g-col-6">
<div id="fig-si" class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center anchored">
<figure class="figure">
<p><a href="imgs/si.jpg" class="lightbox" title="Settlement Intelligencia" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-14"><img src="imgs/si.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<p><a href="imgs/si.jpg" class="lightbox" data-gallery="quarto-lightbox-gallery-14" title="Settlement Intelligencia"><img src="imgs/si.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<figcaption class="figure-caption">Figure&nbsp;1: <em>Settlement Intelligencia</em></figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</div>
<div class="g-col-6">
<div id="fig-war-1" class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center anchored">
<figure class="figure">
<p><a href="imgs/warforged.JPG" class="lightbox" title="Dudes from Warforged and Alluvial" data-gallery="war"><img src="imgs/warforged.JPG" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<p><a href="imgs/warforged.JPG" class="lightbox" data-gallery="war" title="Dudes from Warforged and Alluvial"><img src="imgs/warforged.JPG" class="img-fluid figure-img"></a></p>
<figcaption class="figure-caption">Figure&nbsp;2: Dudes from Warforged and Alluvial</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1095,7 +1095,7 @@ <h1>Addendum</h1>
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10 changes: 5 additions & 5 deletions docs/search.json
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"href": "temp/kingdom-death/index.html#summary-statistics",
"title": "Kingdom Death",
"section": "Summary Statistics",
"text": "Summary Statistics\n\nThere is a valid defence [sic] of using non-Bayesian methods, namely incompetence\n\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_2905/1245481724.py:9: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`apply` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `map_elements`.\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_2905/1245481724.py:10: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`cumsum` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `cum_sum`.\n\n\n\n\nCumulative Deaths Over Time\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\nMost Dangerous Foes\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_2905/510724665.py:2: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`groupby` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `group_by`.\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\nMost Hunted Quarries\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_2905/250231344.py:3: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`groupby` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `group_by`.\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_2905/250231344.py:4: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`count` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `len`.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\ncount\n\n\nMonster\n\n\n\n\n\nWhite Lion\n10\n\n\nGigalion\n5\n\n\nAntelope\n4"
"text": "Summary Statistics\n\nThere is a valid defence [sic] of using non-Bayesian methods, namely incompetence\n\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_4035/1245481724.py:9: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`apply` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `map_elements`.\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_4035/1245481724.py:10: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`cumsum` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `cum_sum`.\n\n\n\n\nCumulative Deaths Over Time\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\nMost Dangerous Foes\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_4035/510724665.py:2: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`groupby` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `group_by`.\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\nMost Hunted Quarries\n\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_4035/250231344.py:3: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`groupby` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `group_by`.\n\n/tmp/ipykernel_4035/250231344.py:4: DeprecationWarning:\n\n`count` is deprecated. It has been renamed to `len`.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\ncount\n\n\nMonster\n\n\n\n\n\nWhite Lion\n10\n\n\nGigalion\n5\n\n\nAntelope\n4"
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"href": "posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html#latent-factors-and-observed-variables",
"title": "Covid-19 Data-Rich Dynamic Factor Model",
"section": "Latent Factors and Observed Variables",
"text": "Latent Factors and Observed Variables\n\nRelationship between latent factors and observed variables via loading matrix\n\n\n# echo: false\nimport numpy as np\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# Set seed for reproducibility\nnp.random.seed(42)\n\n# Generate dummy data\nnum_observed_variables = 4\nnum_time_points = 100\nloading_matrix = np.array([[0.5, 0.3, 0.8, 0.2],\n [0.7, 0.2, 0.5, 0.1]])\n\nlatent_factors = np.random.randn(num_time_points, 2)\nobserved_variables = np.dot(latent_factors, loading_matrix) + np.random.randn(num_time_points, num_observed_variables)\n\n# Plotting\nplt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))\n\n# Plot latent factors\nplt.subplot(2, 1, 1)\nplt.plot(latent_factors[:, 0], label='Latent Factor 1', linestyle='--')\nplt.plot(latent_factors[:, 1], label='Latent Factor 2', linestyle='--')\nplt.title('Latent Factors Over Time')\nplt.legend()\n\n# Plot observed variables\nplt.subplot(2, 1, 2)\nfor i in range(num_observed_variables):\n plt.plot(observed_variables[:, i], label=f'Observed Variable {i+1}')\nplt.title('Observed Variables Over Time')\nplt.legend()\n\nplt.tight_layout()\nplt.show()"
"text": "Latent Factors and Observed Variables\n\nRelationship between latent factors and observed variables via loading matrix"
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"href": "posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html#interpreting-transition-matrices",
"title": "Covid-19 Data-Rich Dynamic Factor Model",
"section": "Interpreting Transition Matrices",
"text": "Interpreting Transition Matrices\nExamining the first transition matrix\n\n# echo: false\nimport numpy as np\nimport seaborn as sns\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# Set seed for reproducibility\nnp.random.seed(42)\n\n# Generate two different transition matrices\ntransition_matrix_1 = np.array([[0.8, 0.2],\n [0.3, 0.7]])\n\ntransition_matrix_2 = np.array([[0.5, 0.5],\n [0.6, 0.4]])\n\n# Create a figure with subplots\nfig, axs = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4))\n\n# Plot heatmap for Transition Matrix 1\nsns.heatmap(transition_matrix_1, annot=True, cmap=\"Reds\", linewidths=.5, ax=axs[0])\naxs[0].set_title('Transition Matrix 1')\n\n# Plot heatmap for Transition Matrix 2\nsns.heatmap(transition_matrix_2, annot=True, cmap=\"Reds\", linewidths=.5, ax=axs[1])\naxs[1].set_title('Transition Matrix 2')\n\n# Adjust layout\nplt.tight_layout()\nplt.show()\n\n\n\n\n\nThe diagonal elements (0.8 and 0.7) are relatively high, indicating a strong persistence of each latent factor over time.\nThe off-diagonal elements (0.2 and 0.3) suggest moderate influence of one latent factor on the other, allowing for some interaction between the two factors.\nSummary: latent factors have a tendency to persist, with some interdependence."
"text": "Interpreting Transition Matrices\nExamining the first transition matrix\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe diagonal elements (0.8 and 0.7) are relatively high, indicating a strong persistence of each latent factor over time.\nThe off-diagonal elements (0.2 and 0.3) suggest moderate influence of one latent factor on the other, allowing for some interaction between the two factors.\nSummary: latent factors have a tendency to persist, with some interdependence."
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"title": "Covid-19 Data-Rich Dynamic Factor Model",
"section": "Interpreting Transition Matrices",
"text": "Interpreting Transition Matrices\nExamining the second transition matrix\n\n# echo: false\nimport numpy as np\nimport seaborn as sns\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\n# Set seed for reproducibility\nnp.random.seed(42)\n\n# Generate two different transition matrices\ntransition_matrix_1 = np.array([[0.8, 0.2],\n [0.3, 0.7]])\n\ntransition_matrix_2 = np.array([[0.5, 0.5],\n [0.6, 0.4]])\n\n# Create a figure with subplots\nfig, axs = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4))\n\n# Plot heatmap for Transition Matrix 1\nsns.heatmap(transition_matrix_1, annot=True, cmap=\"Reds\", linewidths=.5, ax=axs[0])\naxs[0].set_title('Transition Matrix 1')\n\n# Plot heatmap for Transition Matrix 2\nsns.heatmap(transition_matrix_2, annot=True, cmap=\"Reds\", linewidths=.5, ax=axs[1])\naxs[1].set_title('Transition Matrix 2')\n\n# Adjust layout\nplt.tight_layout()\nplt.show()\n\n\n\n\n\nThe diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.4) are lower compared to Transition Matrix 1, suggesting less persistence of each latent factor over time.\nThe off-diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.6) indicate a relatively stronger influence of one latent factor on the other compared to Transition Matrix 1.\nSummary: latent factors are less likely to persist and may be influenced more by each other, allowing for a more dynamic and responsive behavior."
"text": "Interpreting Transition Matrices\nExamining the second transition matrix\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.4) are lower compared to Transition Matrix 1, suggesting less persistence of each latent factor over time.\nThe off-diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.6) indicate a relatively stronger influence of one latent factor on the other compared to Transition Matrix 1.\nSummary: latent factors are less likely to persist and may be influenced more by each other, allowing for a more dynamic and responsive behavior."
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"href": "posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html#factor-constraints",
"title": "Covid-19 Data-Rich Dynamic Factor Model",
"section": "Factor Constraints",
"text": "Factor Constraints\n\nFactor loading constraint example\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDep. variable\nGlobal.1\nPandemic\nEmployment\nConsumption\nInflation\n\n\n\n\nSupply_1\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSupply_7\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMonetary_5\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMonetary_9\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSupply_2\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nSupply_3\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nDemand_7\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nDemand_3\nX\n\n\nX\n\n\n\nDemand_5\nX\n\n\nX\n\n\n\nMonetary_2\nX\n\n\n\nX\n\n\nMonetary_1\nX\n\n\n\nX\n\n\nPandemic_2\nX\nX\n\n\n\n\n\nPandemic_9\nX\nX"
"text": "Factor Constraints\nFactor constraint loadings example\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDep. variable\nGlobal.1\nPandemic\nEmployment\nConsumption\nInflation\n\n\n\n\nSupply_1\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSupply_7\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMonetary_5\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMonetary_9\nX\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSupply_2\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nSupply_3\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nDemand_7\nX\n\nX\n\n\n\n\nDemand_3\nX\n\n\nX\n\n\n\nDemand_5\nX\n\n\nX\n\n\n\nMonetary_2\nX\n\n\n\nX\n\n\nMonetary_1\nX\n\n\n\nX\n\n\nPandemic_2\nX\nX\n\n\n\n\n\nPandemic_9\nX\nX"
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