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markjrieke committed Dec 5, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ Although the project was largely successful, nothing is ever perfect. I have a l

### Re-write the prior model

The [prior model](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/blob/main/stan/priors.stan) that generates state-level priors is, frankly, far too simple. It's based on Alan Abramowitz' [*Time for Change*](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/08/abramowitz.pdf) model, which estimates the national two-party voteshare for the incumbent party using three variables: economioc growth measured in the year-over-year change in real GDP, incumbent approval, and whether (or not) the incumbent president is running.
The [prior model](https://github.com/markjrieke/2024-potus/blob/main/stan/priors.stan) that generates state-level priors is, frankly, far too simple. It's based on Alan Abramowitz' [*Time for Change*](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/08/abramowitz.pdf) model, which estimates the national two-party voteshare for the incumbent party using three variables: economic growth measured in the year-over-year change in real GDP, incumbent approval, and whether (or not) the incumbent president is running.

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