River Level Forecasting

Exploring various neural network architectures for river level forecasting

Research conducted by Orion Junkins, Doug Dennis, Zachary Bochanski and Melissa Swearingen under Dr. Patrick Donnelly

Introduction

This repository seeks to compare various methodologies for forecasting river level flow rates based on a set of weather data sources spread throughout the river's tributaries.

Using an ensemble of models trained on historical data, and a snapshot of recent/forecasted weather, forecasts can be generated for a given river gauge.

The accuracy of these forecasts can be compared internally (ie. between model types), and externally (ie against USGS statistically modeled forecasts).

Directory Structure

This library contains the core River Level Forecasting package (/src/rlf/) as well as a collection of scripts (/scripts/) to facilitate data management, model training, and result evaluation. There is also a collection of demos (/demos/) to help showcase core package functionalities, and a directory of Docker containerized AWS lambda applications (/containers/) for the automation of data collection and model inference in the cloud.

Single file scripts are documented with headers. More complex processes will have directory level READMEs with relavent information.

Dependency Install

All required dependencies are managed through an Anaconda environment. The needed environment is defined in environment.yml.

1. Create a new Conda Environment from this yml definition. This will create a new conda environment named 'river-level'

conda env create -f environment.yml

2. Activate the environment

conda activate river-level

Modifying Dependency List

When experimenting, feel free to change package versions and add new packages as needed. If you push a change that relies on a dependency change/addition, be sure to update environment.yml with the correct package(s) accordingly.

When adding a new dependency also add a short comment in the yml stating where or for what purpose it is being used. This will make any future dependency issues easier to resolve.

Dependency Update

Following changes to the environment.yml file, run the following command to update your local environment to match the dependency list specified in environment.yml.

conda env update -f environment.yml

Install Package Locally

From the root directory of the repo run the following command:

pip install -e .

This will install the package as 'editable' meaning that any changes to the repo will automatically be reflected the next time you import a module. You will not have to reinstall the package.

GPU Training

If you wish to train on a GPU, follow the standard install steps above but use the environment_gpu.yml instead of the standard environment.yml. It is assumed that you have CUDA 11.7 installed on your machine. Future versions of CUDA will likely also work, however you may need to update the version locks in the yml file accordingly. See this pytorch installation guide for previous versions to identify compatible versions.

To test that install has succeeded, run the following in python:

import torch
torch.cuda.is_available()

It must return "True". Refer to Darts and Pytorch GPU setup guides if this fails and verify that each package can be independently installed to recognize GPUs on your machine.

AWS Interaction

Although some functionality can be performed without AWS, much of this codebase expects/depends on having access to the associated AWS account.

In order to interact with AWS, you must have the AWS CLI configured locally. See this quickstart guide or this full guide to get started.

In general, S3 subdirectories will be created as needed, but the following buckets are assumed to exist: all-weather-data and model-forecasts. Scripts for populating these buckets are included in the /scripts/ directory. However, extensive historical data is available existing buckets. Reach out to Orion Junkins ([email protected]) regarding IAM access to existing buckets or for single time copies of archived data.

Testing

This repository uses Pytest for unit testing. In order to run all tests, from the root directory, run the following command:

pytest

To run a specific test file (or subset of test files), run the following command:

pytest tests\forecasting\path\to\test\file\or\directory

Some tests involve interactions with external APIs, or internal AWS S3 buckets. These tests act as higher level tests to ensure that integration with external services is functioning, but they are slow. In order to skip these tests, add the --fast flag as follows:

pytest --fast 

or

pytest --fast tests\forecasting\path\to\test\file\or\directory

Operating System Compatibility

This package has been consistently used and tested on a variety of Windows and Linux machines. Mac support is possible, but some known issues exist within Darts (a central dependency) when using devices using Apple Silicone (M1 and M2 chips). They describe a potential workaround in their installation instructions that should resolve the issue. However, this has not been tested heavily.

Contribute

Reach out to Orion Junkins ([email protected]) regarding project status and ways to contribute. A variety of entry level tech debt/minor improvement tickets are logged which can serve as good entrypoints into learning the codebase.