Car stock model scenario analysis

This project has 3 primary components.

• Emmissions Calculations: TODO
• Car count scenario generation: TODO
• Distance reweighting scenario generation: TODO

Supported scenarios:

This project currently has 5 supported scenarios.

• Baseline Scenario: Emissions are calculated off real scenario.
• No diesel uptake: Scenario assumes diesel and petrol car split remains at 2007 levels (71% Petrol sales, 29% Diesel sales)
• Reduced diesel uptake: Scenario assumes diesel and petrol car split at 2007 levels (71% Petrol sales, 29% Diesel sales), with a 3% shift from Petrol to Diesel every year post 2007.

Calculating the emmsions for a scenario

For the baseline: set the scenario_type in constants.py to 0 and run the calc_emissions.py script.

For scenario X: set the scenario_type in constants.py to X. Then run new_scenario.py. Then run reweighter.py. Finally run calc_emissions.py. scenario 0 = actual sales and emissions scenario 1 = no growth scenario 2 = 3% diesel sale growth scenario 3 = 2% diesel sale growth scenario 4 = 1% diesel sale growth

Varying on-road factors

Currently the on-road factors for petrol and diesel are based on a 2017 study of cars in Germany (Tietge, Mock, Franco & Zacharof, 2017).

A copy of the old on road factor from the SEAI Private car extract can be found in the "static_constants" folders for both Petrol and Diesel.